This morning, I’ve been researching one of the more socially conservative electorates in NSW: Werriwa.
Werriwa recorded one of the highest “No” votes to same-sex marriage in the 2017 plebiscite—63.7%, placing it in the top five of all Australian federal electorates. Similarly, in the 2023 Voice referendum, 63.2% of voters rejected the proposal, showing a consistent pattern of socially conservative leanings.
While voter behaviour is influenced by many demographic factors, religious affiliation stands out as a key identity marker in Werriwa. In the 2021 Census, only 11.1% of Werriwa residents claimed “no religion,” compared to 30.1% across NSW. Additionally, 50.8% identified as Christian, with nearly 90% of the electorate expressing some form of faith affiliation.
In the 2022 federal election, Werriwa also saw significant support for “freedom parties”—20% of voters preferred One Nation, the United Australia Party, or the Libertarian Party. Meanwhile, around 30% backed the Liberal Party. However, the flow of preferences is curious: only 53.65% of those voting for freedom parties directed their preferences to the Liberal candidate, Sam Kayal.
Contrast this with voters on the hard left: 6,772 voters gave their first preference to the Greens, with roughly 80% of those preferences flowing seamlessly to Labor’s Anne Stanley. This highlights a stark difference—voters on the left align their preferences ideologically, while conservative and freedom-leaning voters are less cohesive.
Anne Stanley, the sitting Member for Werriwa, represents a government that recently backed one of the most anti-liberty measures in existence: the Misinformation and Disinformation Bill. This underscores the need for a more compelling conservative alternative in this seat.
So, what’s the takeaway for the majors?
Liberals: Give Werriwa voters a reason to back you. Campaign on liberty, freedom, family values, and small government—issues that resonate deeply with the electorate. A clear, cohesive message that aligns with the values of socially conservative voters could make Werriwa a key pickup in 2025.
Labor: Acknowledge that increasing overreach into personal lives and liberties is damaging your platform. Safeguard freedoms—religious, parental, personal, and associative—by committing to protect religious freedoms in a way that genuinely respects people of faith. Back off from “totalitarian” measures like the Misinformation and Disinformation Bill or risk losing socially conservative seats like Werriwa in 2025.
